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Posted by alexrasmussen (on March 22, 2012)
I like that Larry is still on point and aggressive. Having a billionaire on board is always a huge plus in my books. In the right space, hopefully they'll be diligent on not overpaying for acquisitions. I'd rather own IBM but ORCL is a close second and better on valuation. http://seekingalpha.com/article/445411-identifying-8-predictable-cash-machines One of 8 cash machines I identified recently.
Posted by dougmccormick (on March 22, 2012)
Having a founder running the company is the ideal but I wouldn't buy Oracle right now. Too close to intrinsic value. Maybe they'll miss their numbers and become a lot more itneresting
Posted by hound1965 (on July 20, 2012)
Be very careful of Vuru's analysis of ORCL. If you download the income statement you will find that the data for 2012 is incomplete and the calculations incorrect.
Posted by tmuscat27 (on October 18, 2012)
Can you be more specific and who are you comparing it with?
Posted by pbanik (on July 20, 2012)
Yes, ORCL is a company to wait for at a better price.
MSN Money's StockScouter rates ORCL highly as well:
The yield is poor right now compared to the S&P500, the P/E ratio is higher than industry average, and so is price/sales ratio.I would give this stock maybe a 6 or 7 out of 10, but certainly a 9 or 10, or even an 8.
Posted by cbba@bolivien (on May 5, 2013)
Have a look at http://www.buffettsbooks.com/
start with course 1 lesson 1 on the end you know muuutch more
Posted by Alexleroi (on December 18, 2012)
You certainly don't want to bet on a company that has bad incentives and undesirable employee relation.
Posted by tmuscat27 (on October 18, 2012)
Does anyone know why some companies like msft,mdt and others even though they have good earnings the price is still about the same as ten years ago.
And doese any one know how to calculate future share price. I use growth which should be the logical equation but many times my price differ from the analyst price.
Thanks t muscat
Posted by pbanik (on October 18, 2012)
Price is determined by the action of buyers and sellers in the market, as it in other financial markets. If there are more shares being bought than sold, that will drive the price up. If there are more shares being sold than bought, that will drive the price down.
As for how to calculate future share price, here's some links that might be of help to you. I don't have any model I use at the present time. I just focus on the financials, management, competitors, economic moat (if present), dividends and buybacks policy.
How to Calculate Future Value of Stock
Stock Valuation — EPS Growth - PE Ratio Method
Calculating Stock Prices
Predicting a Stock's Future Value
How to Predict Future Stock Prices
The Nerbrand z
Nerbrand Z. Given that investments are subject to revisions of future expectations the Nerbrand Z utilises uncertainty of consensus estimates to assess how much earnings forecasts can be revised in standard deviation terms before P/E rations return to normalised levels. This calculation is best done with I/B/E/S consensus estimates. The market tend to focus on the 12 month forward P/E level but this ratio is dependent on earnings estimates which are never homogenous. Hence there is a standard deviation of 12 month forward earnings estimates.
The Nerbrand z is therefore expressed as
where H[P/E] = normalised P/E, e.g. a 5 year historical average of 12 month forward P/E ratios.
E12 = mean 12 month forward earnings estimates
stdev(E12) = standard deviation of 12 month forward earnings estimates.
A negative number indicates that earnings can be downgraded before valuations normalise. As such, a negative number indicate a valuation adjusted earnings buffer. For example, if the 12 month forward mean EPS forecast is $10, the price of the equity is $100, the historical average P/E ratio is 15, the standard deviation of EPS forecast is 2 then the Nerbrand Z is -1.67. That is, 12 month forward consensus earnings estimates could be downgraded by 1.67 standard deviation before P/E ratio would go back to 15.
Stock Price Calculator for Common Stock Valuation